Projected seasonal changes

In general, it can be expected that the district will see warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. It is also likely that the intensity and frequency of storms and extreme weather events will increase.

A 2°C Global Warming Level scenario

Under the projections of a 2°C rise in temperatures globally, the New Forest is likely to experience:

an annual average temperature that is 1.6°C warmer than current levels
a 3.7°C increase in the maximum summer temperature
a 12% reduction in precipitation rate during summer
a 9% increase during winter

A 4°C Global Warming Level scenario

Under the projections of a 4°C rise in temperatures globally, the New Forest is likely to experience:

an annual average temperature that is 3.4°C warmer than current levels
a 7.3°C increase in the maximum summer temperature
a 36% reduction in precipitation rate during summer
a 25% increase during winter

Sea level in the New Forest

The likely scenario is that sea level rise in the New Forest will:

be 18cm by 2030
29cm by 2050
47cm by 2080

However, the amount of sea level rise depends on emissions, and it is possible that by 2080 the sea level in the New Forest could have risen by up to 91cm.

Useful resources and links

There are a range of resources that provide further information on the projected seasonal changes that are likely to be experience across the New Forest - these include:

The New Forest National Park Authority have produced a detailed report (link when available) on the New Forest National Park climate as part of their Climate Risk and Opportunities Assessment. They have also produced case studies (link when available) to show adaptation opportunities.